Platinum Surges 40%: Deficits, Hydrogen & Jewelry Demand Fuel Breakout

Market Snapshot

Platinum has rallied approximately 40% this year—trading around $1,270–1,280/oz, its highest level since early 2021—signalling the strongest leg of its multi-year breakout  .

Supply Crunch & Structural Deficits

According to the World Platinum Investment Council’s Q1 report, global mine production dropped 13% year-on-year—the lowest since the COVID lockdowns—leaving a projected 966 koz supply deficit for 2025, marking a third consecutive year undersupplied  . Recycling is only slightly recovering (+3%), so the underlying shortage remains acute .

Multi‑Sector Demand Drivers

Platinum’s rally is anchored by three converging demand streams:

Jewelry: China imported some 11.5 t in April—its most in over a year—as consumers shifted from costlier gold  .

Industrial & Green Energy: Use in hydrogen fuel cells, glassmaking, and chemical catalysts now accounts for ~15–30% of demand. Research into platinum recovery from fuel cells and long-term hydrogen strategy underscores its importance .

Automotive Substitution: With EV adoption slowing, automakers are switching from palladium to platinum in catalytic converters; platinum’s diversified use protects it from single-sector risk .

Investor & ETF Interest

Platinum ETFs have seen inflows of about 70,000 oz YTD, reflecting growing investor interest  . Meanwhile, speculative momentum is shifting bullish: PGM investment demand is estimated around 688,000 oz in 2025—three years of positive flows  .

Technical Breakout & Upside Targets

Technically, platinum has broken out of a triangular consolidation (~$1,050–$1,100) to reach ~$1,275, signaling a classic bull breakout . Analysts offer 2025–26 targets of $1,300–1,400, with extreme bull cases reaching $1,500+ if deficits persist .

Comparative Advantage Over Palladium

Platinum’s demand base is broader than palladium’s—which is heavily reliant on gasoline vehicle catalytic converters and at risk from the EV shift. Platinum benefits from diversification across jewelry, green energy, autos, and industry  .

Risk Factors & Watchlist

Key risks include seasonal softness in industrial/chemical sectors, possible reductions in Chinese jewelry demand, and increased platinum use efficiency in fuel-cell tech lowering metal intensity . Also monitor U.S. tariff developments—though bars remain exempt, industrial goods could be impacted .

NHB Bullion Tactical View

We track platinum live, monitoring critical levels at $1,250, $1,300, and $1,350. A pullback toward $1,250–$1,270 offers an attractive entry, with momentum and fundamentals supporting a next leg higher. Investor focus should remain on watchlist Catalysts: Q2 earnings, hydrogen policy, and industrial updates.

Investment Takeaways

Consider layering in physical or ETF-based platinum exposure as part of a diversified metals portfolio. Watch the $1,250–$1,270 range for entries, and consider profit targets near $1,350–$1,400. Limit sizing and employ stop-losses given platinum’s higher short-term volatility vs gold.

Disclaimer

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, legal, or investment advice. All prices are quoted in U.S. dollars (USD) and based on market data available at the time of writing. Please consult a qualified professional before making any investment decisions.